Odds of an Oil Spill
There are eye-popping odds of 87% over 50 years for a serious spill from the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline, the terminal, or its oil tankers,
and thanks to Steven Hume for bringing this testimony forward. The odds were calculated by a worker in Kitimat using Enbridge's own data, and they are absolutely astonishing.
"Here's what he found, crunching Enbridge's own data:
The mathematical chance of an oil spill at sea is 18.1 per cent. The mathematical chance of a spill of up to 10,000 litres at the Kitimat terminal is 47.8 per cent and of a spill of up to a million litres is 15.6 per cent.
There is a 30.8-per-cent chance of a spill of up to a million litres in the southern Alberta uplands section of the pipeline route and a 34.5-per-cent chance of a similar spill in B.C.'s Interior Plateau.
"Using the appropriate mathematical formula, the probability that at least one of the locations will experience a medium-sized [up to a mil-lion litres] leak or spill over the 50-year proposed project is 77.54 per cent. Combining everything, the risk of one or more medium or large spills over the 50 years is about 87 per cent," Marsh observes."